U.S. government officials expected the war to be over in days. It has so far lasted nearly nine months. Russia did not expect the conflict to last this long either. That was the Kremlin’s “original sin,” according to Mason Clark, a senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.
“What has impeded Russian advances is that they did not prepare to have to fight for so long,” Clark said. A Washington Post analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War shows that, after aggressive advances in the first weeks of war, Russia hasn’t gained more than 1,000 square miles in a week since April.
Weekly changes in assessed
territory control in Ukraine
March 3 – Week 1
Russia makes aggressive advances in the first week of war.
Ukrainian
counter-
offensives
April 7 – Week 6
Russia regtreats from the north.
Russian forces struggle to make significant territorial gains between May and August.
June 30 – Week 18
Russia makes small advances in the Donbas region.
Sept. 15 – Week 29
Ukraine pushes Russian forces east in the Kharkiv region.
Nov. 10 –
Week 37
Russia withdraws its troops from Kherson.
Counts are approximate. Week counts start on
each Thursday because the first day of the invasion
was Thursday, Feb. 24. Territory gains and losses
are calculated by subtracting the total territory
controlled by Russia at the end of each week
from the previous week.
Weekly changes in assessed
territory control in Ukraine
March 3 – Week 1
Russia makes aggressive advances in the first week of war.
Ukrainian
counter-
offensives
April 7 – Week 6
Russia withdraws forces from the north of Ukraine.
Russian forces struggle to make significant territorial gains between May and August.
June 30 – Week 18
Russia makes small advances in the Donbas region.
Sept. 15 – Week 29
Ukrainian counteroffensives push Russian forces east in the
Kharkiv region.
Nov. 10 – Week 37
Russia withdraws
its troops from Kherson.
Counts are approximate. Week counts start on each Thursday
because the first day of the invasion was Thursday, Feb. 24.
Territory gains and losses are calculated by subtracting
the total territory controlled by Russia at the end of each week
from the previous week.
Weekly changes in assessed territory control in Ukraine
13.7k square miles gained by Russia
Feb. 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine
March 3 – Week 1
After aggressive advances, Russia controls more than 50,000 square miles at the end of the first week of war.
10k square miles reclaimed by Ukraine
Ukrainian
counter-
offensives
April 7 – Week 6
After a failed attempt to control Kyiv, Russia withdraws forces from the north of Ukraine, giving up more than 10,000 square miles that week.
Poorly equipped and manned, Russian forces struggle to make significant territorial gains between May and August.
June 30 – Week 18
Despite Russia’s advances in the Donbas region in late June, the Kremlin’s weekly gains in the summer don’t exceed 815 square miles, about twice the size of Nashville.
Sept. 15 – Week 29
The end of the summer is marked by significant Russian losses in the Kharkiv region, after Ukrainian counteroffensives push Russian forces east.
Nov. 10 – Week 37
After occupying Kherson for nearly nine months, Russia withdraws its troops from the southern city, a major setback for Moscow.
Counts are approximate. Week counts start on each Thursday because the first day of the
invasion was Thursday, Feb. 24. Territory gains and losses are calculated by subtracting
the total territory controlled by Russia at the end of each week from the previous week.
Weekly changes in assessed territory control in Ukraine
13.7k square miles gained by Russia
Feb. 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine
Ukrainian
counter-
offensives
March 3 – Week 1
After aggressive advances into the northeast, east and southern of Ukraine, Russia controls more than 50,000 square miles at the end of the first week of war.
April 7 – Week 6
After a failed attempt to control Kyiv, Russia withdraws forces from the north of Ukraine, giving up more than 10,000 square miles that week.
10k square miles reclaimed by Ukraine
Poorly equipped and manned, Russian forces struggle to make significant territorial gains between May and August.
June 30 – Week 18
Despite Russia’s advances in the Donbas region in late June, the Kremlin’s weekly gains in the summer don’t exceed 815 square miles, about twice the size of Nashville.
Sept. 15 – Week 29
The end of the summer is marked by significant Russian losses in the Kharkiv region, after Ukrainian counteroffensives push Russian forces east.
Nov. 10 – Week 37
After occupying Kherson for nearly nine months, Russia withdraws its troops from the southern city, a major setback for Moscow.
Counts are approximate. Week counts start on each Thursday because the first day of the invasion was Thursday, Feb. 24.
Territory gains and losses are calculated by subtracting the total territory controlled by Russia at the end of each week from the previous week.
Ukrainian soldiers reclaimed the Kherson area after Moscow’s Nov. 11 retreat, marking the biggest victory for Ukraine in the war so far and Russia’s third major blow, after its troops withdrew from the north in April and then from Kharkiv in September.
Russia’s struggles to make advances are a direct consequence of the costly initial phase of the war, according to CSIS’s Bergmann. Tens of thousands of its troops were killed and a significant amount of its equipment was destroyed.
After failing to seize Kyiv, the Kremlin was left with “poorly equipped, poorly manned units that aren’t quite fulsome” in the field, Bergmann said. “Many of the resources are exhausted and they haven’t been rotated out.”
After Russia lost resources in Ukraine, it hit a long plateau, unable to make any significant gains.
Since early September, the plateau has turned into a downward trend, with Russian forces consistently losing territory.
Change in Russian-controlled
territory during three turning
points in the war
Change in Russian-controlled territory
during three turning points in the war
Change in Russian-controlled territory during
three turning points in the war
Change in Russian-controlled territory during three turning points in the war
Russian-controlled territory in context
Ukraine’s territory is about the same size as the state of Texas, or 6 percent of the United States. Although Ukraine can seem small when compared with the United States, it’s considered large in European standards — the second-largest country, in fact, after Russia.
Before the war, Moscow controlled about 17,000 square miles of Ukraine’s land, split up into Crimea (annexed by the Kremlin in 2014) and the separatist-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk.
By the end of the fourth week of the war, Russia controlled the most land since its invasion, about 51,000 square miles, or 22 percent of Ukraine. In the United States, this percentage would be the equivalent to the entire Midwest and some more.
Ukraine
233,000
square miles
The most
controlled
by Russia
Calculations are based on weekly territory totals.
Ukraine
233,000
square miles
The most
controlled
by Russia
Calculations are based on weekly territory totals.
Territory held by Russia
before the war
Ukraine
233,000
square miles
The most territory
controlled by Russia
Calculations are based on weekly territory totals.
As of Nov. 17, Russia controlled some 40,000 square miles in Ukraine, mainly in the east and south. That’s about 17 percent of the country, the lowest percentage controlled by Moscow since April.
Analysts say Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy is aimed at exhausting and outlasting Ukrainian troops, with the aim of decreasing allies’ confidence in Ukraine’s capabilities, all the while strengthening and training new forces.
“The Russian forces might be able to take some territory around Donetsk, but I certainly don’t think they are going to achieve any decisive breakthroughs, which they haven’t for months and months in the war,” Clark said.
Despite Ukraine’s victory in Kherson, reclaiming the east will be a difficult and phased task. “It’s going to require several counteroffensives more to actually retake more Russian-occupied territory,” Clark said.
While momentum seems to be on Ukraine’s side, the shape the war will take in the coming months still hangs in the balance. To Bergmann, the main question is whether Ukraine will be able to keep advancing in the weeks before the winter, when the rain and mud usually make military movements more difficult.
“There’s a lot still to play for in this conflict and it’s very uncertain which direction it will go,” he said.
Data from the Institute for the Study of War, as of Nov. 17.
Editing by Emily Eng, Tim Meko, Kate Rabinowitz and Reem Akkad. Copy editing by Vanessa Larson.
