What the Hawks Didn’t Get at Jackson Hole
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda certainly expressed resolve, but of a very different nature to his Group of Seven counterparts. Inflation has exceeded the BOJ’s 2% target for a few months, but Kuroda isn’t particularly impressed and ultra-loose policy still rules. “We have no choice other than continued easing until wages and prices rise in a stable and sustainable manner,” Kuroda said at one panel.
That’s in line with Kuroda’s comments after recent BOJ rate decisions — in itself noteworthy. When visiting the US in April, he struck a different stance. In a speech at Columbia University, Kuroda appeared to abandon the bank’s forward guidance that policy will be further eased if necessary. He said that the economy wasn’t vulnerable enough to warrant such a step. Whatever his intent then, there’s little ambiguity about his position now. Any tightening may have to wait until after his second term concludes next year.
One of the earliest rate hikers went so far as to suggest that the bulk of his heavy lifting may be done. Adrian Orr, governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, said that after four consecutive increases in the benchmark rate of half a percentage point, “We’re in a much more comfortable position.” Orr told Bloomberg Television’s Kathleen Hays that the slowdown under way is “a good signal that monetary policy is biting and we are doing our work.” But Kiwi policy makers were moving against inflation before Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde or Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. The ability to soon slow down — even to pause rate hikes — is the reward; private sector economists see cuts as soon as next year.
Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong was careful not to rule out a big hike. But this fell short of backing a return to jumbo adjustments. Rhee made a splash soon after his appointment when the BOK broke a pattern of quarter-point nudges with a 50-basis-points move in July. Hours before he got on the plane, BOK policy makers returned to small steps in their August meeting. Altering course again wouldn’t look like resolve, but like there’s no plan or strategy. The bank has already reached what it considers to be a neutral range of level of rates. Get to the upper end, and Seoul will weigh whether further work is required. Rhee also told the Jackson Hole audience that Asia can return to the days of low inflation that prevailed before Covid and its aftermath. Not that Asian economies can strike out entirely on their own. What happens in the US can buoy or buffet them. The Fed’s path has an enormous influence on exchange rates; the dollar is on one side of almost 90% of currency transactions. As key exporters, Asian countries are susceptible to the ebbs and flows of economic cycles, something American monetary policy greatly shapes. If places like Korea and New Zealand had been late to interest rate liftoff, as the Fed and ECB were, Orr & company might well have made Powell blush with their hawkishness. None of this suggests a wishing away of inflation. Kuroda, who has strived to push inflation up for his nine years in the job, would prefer that it not be driven by soaring global energy and commodity costs. Rhee and Orr may soon see the dividends of starting early, if they can take a break by the end of the year. Don’t expect them to countenance that notion too loudly, however. In this era of inflation busting, there are limits to what can be uttered in polite company.
Powell went out of his way to discourage the idea the Fed will retreat next year, as some traders have wagered. He might gaze across the Pacific with some envy.
More From Bloomberg Opinion:
• Powell Is Better When He Sticks to the Script: Jonathan Levin
• The Faultline in China’s Economic Caution: Daniel Moss
• Inflation Overshoots in Japan. No Big Deal: Moss & Reidy
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Daniel Moss is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian economies. Previously, he was executive editor of Bloomberg News for economics.
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