Based on Decision Desk HQ’s updated analysis of The Hill’s election forecast, Vice President Harris’s replacement of President Biden at the top of the ticket has skewed the races for the White House and Congress in favour of Democrats, though all three contests will be close. Following Biden’s withdrawal from the race on July 21 and his endorsement of Harris, Harris’s chances of winning the White House over former President Trump have sharply increased to 55 per cent.
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With Harris leading the charge for the Democrats, despite being the underdogs in both contests, they also stand a better chance of winning the House and the Senate. Though the DDHQ/The Hill analysis pegs the GOP’s chances of regaining the Senate majority at 67 per cent, down from 78 per cent when Biden withdrew, the party is still the clear favourite to win the majority.
The Republicans are the clear favourite to win back a majority in the Senate, with a 67% chance of winning the Senate, down from 78% before the forecast model went down. Democrats are defending about a half dozen potentially vulnerable seats, while the GOP is defending arguably two at most. But the most key races in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada are toss-ups or slightly favour Democrats. The GOP is almost certain to pick up a seat in West Virginia and is favoured in Montana, where Republicans are seeking to oust Sen. Jon Tester. The House race is a rollercoaster, with many toss-up races potentially shifting in favour of Democrats.
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FAQs
What impact has Kamala Harris’s campaign had on Democrats’ chances in 2024?
The Democrats now have a 55% chance of winning the White House and a marginally better chance of winning the House and Senate races.With Harris leading the ticket, why are Democrats feeling more confident about their chances?
Democrats are more optimistic because Harris has gained momentum in key swing states, improving her polling numbers and solidifying the Democratic base.
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